SACRAMENTO -- Political leaders and analysts agree that Latino immigrants will hold the key in future elections, perhaps as early as 2012, but for now their impact is limited.
That was the reaction to last week's report, Integration Potential of California Immigrants and Their Children, which says Latino and Asian immigrants who are or will become American citizens will tip the balance of the 2012 elections in California.
The study shows the state has 1.2 million residents ages 12 to 17 who are children of immigrants and will soon be eligible to vote. Right now, there are 6.7 million registered voters who are Latinos, and those numbers are expected to exceed 7 million by 2012 -- the largest bloc of Latino voters in the country.
"I'm not surprised by the results of this study. It only confirms what we all know, that Latinos will decide the political future of this state," said Arnoldo Torres, political analyst in Sacramento.
He said Latinos have always had the numbers to make a difference in their communities, but not always the education or the will to believe their vote will make a difference.
"We still have a long way to go to convince ourselves that our vote can bring about the changes we seek," Torres said.
He added that many Latino politicians tend to ignore the interest of Latino voters in favor of special interests.
Assemblywoman Bonnie García, R-Cathedral City, agrees Latino voters need to educate themselves on the issues and candidates and take their civic duty seriously.
"The Latino population of California lives from farming. We need to get them out of the fields and bring them into the corporations so they can be part of the development and change," she said.
She said that, while Latino voters may exceed 7 million by 2012, it will take two or three more generations to become a true political force.
The study, conducted by Rob Paral, a Chicago-based researcher, states that California gets 325,000 new immigrants every year, primarily from Asia and Latin America. Eighty-four percent of their children are American-born, while most of the rest have become naturalized American citizens.
Arturo Vargas, national president of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), also said he's not surprised by the results of the study, given that the immigrant population in California has grown "exponentially" in recent years.
"Given that growth, it's not surprising that in a few years they'll be the ones deciding the political future of this state," he said.
Vargas said the impact of Latinos at the polls won't take long to be felt. He cited the recent surge in citizenship applications in response to anti-immigrant rhetoric. Most of all, he noted many of the applications are coming from high school students who want to vote and get involved in society.
"That became clear two years ago when thousands of students left the classrooms and joined the marches against anti-immigrant proposals. All that did was open their eyes to the importance of voting and change the destiny of their community. It provoked a social movement," he said.